…Says sect possesses superior arms
From AIDOGHIE PAULINUS, Abuja
A security expert, Mr. Max Gbanite, has said that the war against insurgency in the country cannot be won if the Nigerian military is not provided with the adequate arms, equipment and logistics to sustain and defeat the Islamist sect, Boko Haram.
Gbanite who spoke with Sunday Sun in Abuja, noted that Boko Haram possess superior arms, adding that the casualty being sustained by the military was becoming very alarming and unacceptable.
He advocated a more effective military relation and also suggested that governors should assist their colleagues in restoring infrastructure destroyed by the insurgents. Excerpts…
The state of emergency declared by President Goodluck Jonathan some months back in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno has just been extended. Was the extension necessary?
The issue of a state of emergency, I agree that it worked to an extent and should be extended. The extension in this particular case is following the establishment of a 7 Division of the Nigerian Army.
My worry is, has the 7 Division been given adequate supplies, logistics, instruments of war to sustain and defeat Boko Haram? And my answer to that is, No. It has not been done and that worries me a lot. My definition of the war so far is that the military has been able to curtail the incessant bombings of various parts of the nation such as Kano, Borno and the Improvised Explosives Devices (IEDs), have really lessened. Bombing of churches has really lessened. But there is a renewal in the group called Boko Haram and that renewal is that they fight in smaller cells, such as five, ten, fifteen-man cells, whereas the military fights in platoons and companies. At this particular point in time, the Boko Haram have superior materials in terms of arms.
How did you arrive at that?
From my investigations of what has been going on in the area, if a cell of 10 Boko Haram carries five (Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs) and (General-Purpose Machine Guns (GPMGs) and the platoon or infantry soldiers carry one RPG, it means there is a superior fire power. The Avtomat Kalashnikova (AK47), which is the choice of weapon being used by the current military, is outdated. It has a 50-year technology and the bullet being used, the 769 millimeter bullet, is outdated. These are clones from Africa, from China and other areas of the world. That particular AK47, the original inventor, Russia, has stopped using it more than 50 years ago. Therefore, the Nigerian military should be able to upgrade to a superior firepower with armor piercing bullets.
Secondly, if the Boko Haram use Hilux in the theatre of operation, the Nigerian army doesn’t have to use Hilux. Hilux are not build for maneuverability in theatres of operation, in landscapes like Yobe and Borno. We should look for superior vehicles and give to the military. But somewhere, government is alleged to be withholding money that is meant for this, which means the administration is paying lip service to the fight, destruction and stoppage of this insurgency once and for all. It is imperative that we fund the military adequately to be able to sustain the onslaught in order to remove political Boko Haram, remove criminal Boko Haram and isolate the ideological Boko Haram for the final elimination at our borders.
In your own calculation, is the government winning the war against Boko Haram?
It is difficult to calculate who is winning. But let me just say succinctly that the casualty being sustained by friendly forces, in this case, our military, is becoming very alarming and distasteful for me to accept as act of war. The Boko Haram have also found various ways to create serious panic within the system by attacking schools, attacking innocent civilians, attacking ceremonies. The fact that they are able to do that unseen by the military, tells me that the intelligence community needs to upgrade their tactics in terms of procurement of intelligence, both human intelligence and artificial intelligence and at this particular point in time, our military needs to have an airborne unit, a helicopter unit that will be able to rapidly deploy to the theatre of operation within seconds and be able to sustain result.
This is not a symmetrical war where you use fighter jets from the Air Force to attack known locations of Boko Haram. No. You need lighter aircraft like helicopter gunships, which move swiftly and have rapid deployment of armament that can yield against these insurgents successfully. You need aerial reconnaissance, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that have infrared capabilities that can hover above 10,000 feet to be able to reconnoiter all the theatres of operation and know when Boko Haram is crossing our border and where they are going to carry out operations and be able to distinctively know who is wearing a true Nigerian army uniform and who is an impostor.
It amazes me that even as of today, the military have changed the colour of their camouflage three times and each time they change it, Boko Haram like chameleon, assimilates, which means there are moles within the military that tell Boko Haram the type of camouflage that will be used. It really disturbs me that recently, Boko Haram were able to procure armoured vehicle to attack military positions before such armoured vehicles were destroyed. Where did they get these armoured vehicles? How did they enter Nigeria? That means there are people within the system that are funding and financing Boko Haram and giving us problems.
What could be the aim of these people?
That again remains for analysts to decipher what is their aim. Some people have said, according to Shekau, that their aim is the Islamization of Nigeria, which I very much doubt because majority of the people that have been killed are Muslims. Others have said destabilization of Nigeria. But the mere fact that Boko Haram has an international link with al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda and also with the Mali insurgency, it makes it very uncertain if you are going to have elections in Borno and Yobe in 2015. It also makes it uncertain if you are going to hold census in 2016 in those areas, and since those are Nigerian territories, the children in those areas remain Nigerians. They are potential Senators, potential medical doctors and potential Nigerian army candidates. Therefore, we must liberate those two states, including Adamawa because they are Nigerian territories.
As a security expert, is the leader of the Boko Haram sect, Shekau, alive or dead?
I am glad you said security expert and not an overseer. While I was in the United States of America, it was alleged that he had been shot and wounded in one of the theatres of operation and I tried to confirm that and nobody saw his body. But informants within their ranks confirmed to the military that he had been shot dead.
Personally, if I were to advise the military, I would have created a unit that would go on a hunt for his body, excavate the body and bring him out. If he is buried in Cameroon, then it is easier. But you could not do these things because there is an absence of two things – aerial reconnaissance. Early in this war, we should have been able to bring in drones. I don’t know arrangements that are being made to procure same. I hope the Chief of Army Staff is doing that now.
Secondly, we have not won or made any attempt at media narrative. But Boko Haram have won that war. They have effectively used the media, both print and broadcast. They have effectively used the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Hausa Service, Voice of America (VOA) Hausa Service to articulate their position. But we are yet to articulate narratively through the media and be able to change the hearts and minds of their recruits and their followers and be able to say to them, Boko Haram is un-Islamic, Boko Haram is un-Nigerian and Boko Haram is not in your interest. But nobody is doing that and I want to believe that people in the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA), are putting something together to that effect. But why must it be a fire brigade approach, instead of sitting down, getting the required expertise to move forward in this issue of narrative?
Shekau recently released video messages. Are they real?
Well, if the Nigerian army has a psychological department that is vibrant, then the psycho analyst will sit down and be able to study the body language of that video and compare it to previous videos of Shekau and bring in statisticians to be able to look at the physical similarities and ascertain if this man is alive or dead, if there is an impostor in this particular case or if there is a look-alike. Since they have failed to do that, it is difficult to believe that he is dead and also very difficult to ascertain that he is alive.
Do you think the military was right to have claimed that he may have died when they didn’t have the fact?
Well, the military did not say it verbatim that he is dead. They also alleged that they were told that he was dead. They had to give that information based on what they had because it can also be very tactical. That information could also be a base for the resurgence of civilian joint task force who now feel that Shekau is dead. We are now going to be good people and follow the system. It also has another end to it and for Boko Haram to be struggling to say that Shekau is alive, is also affecting their psyche because if he is alive, why continue to say he is alive. Let him continue to say that which he usually does. You don’t need to say he is alive. So, it’s a two-edged sword and the military did its duty in my own view in saying the man is dead.
Is it true that some of the attacks we hear of are being carried out by the military, rather than Boko Haram? Again, that the military wants the situation to continue so that they can continue to exploit the system?
That’s a very unfortunate analysis. The Nigerian military that I know and have studied their body language in terms of the civil war, are a very disciplined military. They fought a civil war and brought peace to this country. I doubt that the Nigerian military will do that. But what has been observed is that the Boko Haram themselves, have been impersonating the officers, wearing uniforms of various shades and colours and have been attacking communities as a basis to cast aspersions on the military. I don’t think the Nigerian modern day army will do that. Do you know that the minimum education of military amongst Colonels is at least a Master’s Degree? So, how could they carry out such? It’s not possible. They themselves would like a closure to this war so that they can go about doing that which they know how to do best and that is being the Nigerian army.
How would you describe the present civil-military relationship, most importantly in those three states?
I think there is need for greater improvement not only in those three states, but in the country as a whole. But let me just say that the military hospital in Kaduna, 90 percent of the casualties there are civilians and not the military. They are being treated by the military. Let me also say that there are boreholes and housing that the military are doing in the affected areas. But we need to do more. It’s not just only the military. I will like to see a situation where the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), can sit down together and say let us help our brother governors and they will task themselves for the sake of this country; N100 million from each state governor and out of the 33 state governors, for the purpose of going to Yobe and saying to Governor Shettima, you are Nigerian and we feel your pain, use this to rebuild some of the infrastructure that have been destroyed.
Will Boko Haram not destroy them again?
Boko Haram stands the opportunity to destroy them again. For instance, without digression, that people were killed in Boston Marathon last year doesn’t mean that Boston Marathon will not hold this year. There is a resilience called people’s resilience. When you build and somebody destroys and you build again, it is psychologically telling on the person, you cannot defeat us. The people of Nigeria have resolved that we must defeat you and that will go a long way. Those two or three governors at this particular moment are isolated. Everything they are doing is coming from their security votes. I will like other state governors to help them with the displaced persons issues they have, help rebuild the schools and houses.
There are two victims in this thing called Boko Harm: the victim of a mother whose child becomes Boko Haram because she never wanted her child to become an extremist. There is the victim of the family who lost children to the military power or to Boko Haram bombing. Don’t they deserve to be consoled by the general public of Nigeria? I still believe there must be a dramatic improvement in the military/civil relationship. The military needs to step up and show it to the Nigerian public that we have done XYZ in various communities.
The most dangerous aspect of this war is shutting down telecommunication in these states as it is affecting all parties. I would like to see the military in collaboration with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), open tunnels of communication whereby you put a time log between 6 am and 10 am, people in certain parts of the state can make calls and you monitor these calls effectively because we have the capability to monitor up to 3G. It’s just that the government lacks the political will to do that.
What’s your take on the politicization of the military along religious and ethnic lines?
It’s a very dangerous aspect. For those of us who have a sense of history, I was a child soldier for three years and I didn’t see my parents in that war with a bullet wound or mortar wound in my right ankle because our military were politicized in January of 1966. That led to a brutal civil war that took so many lives, including civilians. Recently, some retired Generals from a particular area in the country accused the current Chief of Army Staff of being very biased in promotions and they were wrong because to promote in the military, there are internal mechanisms that are applied. You take your exams, you pass your exams and your files since your days in the Nigeria Defence Academy (NDA) or since you joined the military, follows you along. If you are a good military officer, your peers know. The promotion comes from peer review mechanism before it goes to the Army Promotion Board and the Army Council Board approves those that will be made General. Why is it that when somebody is made a Major General, he says to God that he is grateful for giving him Generalship but when he is retired, he blames human beings? It means that such people’s faith is questionable.
Recently, the most dangerous was when an Islamic group in Kaduna called a press conference to say that the intake in NDA is biased, that there were few Muslims taken against many Christians from Kaduna. That is very dangerous. People are born Nigerians first before their religion and the federal character did not address the issue of religion. Federal character addressed the issue of geographic zones and if a young man from Kaduna is taken into NDA, what are his qualifications? His school certificate result. The army today says we do not want indolent army officers. We want brilliant army officers. So, under DSS, what they do is they first select those with First Class and 2/1 before they look at 2/2 or Third Class. But, unfortunately, because some areas may not have produced 2/1 or 2/2, they may even take Third Class to the detriment of those who are more brilliant.
But having said that, it is unfortunate and must be condemned with every breadth that a religious body will call a press conference and condemn the Nigerian military; a military that has a roadmap on how it performs its recruitment policies. I don’t think it’s fair and those people should quickly apologize to the Federal Government for trying to bring in the issue of religion into the Nigerian army. I find it very despicable.
A security expert, Mr. Max Gbanite, has said that the war against insurgency in the country cannot be won if the Nigerian military is not provided with the adequate arms, equipment and logistics to sustain and defeat the Islamist sect, Boko Haram.
Gbanite who spoke with Sunday Sun in Abuja, noted that Boko Haram possess superior arms, adding that the casualty being sustained by the military was becoming very alarming and unacceptable.
He advocated a more effective military relation and also suggested that governors should assist their colleagues in restoring infrastructure destroyed by the insurgents. Excerpts…
The state of emergency declared by President Goodluck Jonathan some months back in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno has just been extended. Was the extension necessary?
The issue of a state of emergency, I agree that it worked to an extent and should be extended. The extension in this particular case is following the establishment of a 7 Division of the Nigerian Army.
My worry is, has the 7 Division been given adequate supplies, logistics, instruments of war to sustain and defeat Boko Haram? And my answer to that is, No. It has not been done and that worries me a lot. My definition of the war so far is that the military has been able to curtail the incessant bombings of various parts of the nation such as Kano, Borno and the Improvised Explosives Devices (IEDs), have really lessened. Bombing of churches has really lessened. But there is a renewal in the group called Boko Haram and that renewal is that they fight in smaller cells, such as five, ten, fifteen-man cells, whereas the military fights in platoons and companies. At this particular point in time, the Boko Haram have superior materials in terms of arms.
How did you arrive at that?
From my investigations of what has been going on in the area, if a cell of 10 Boko Haram carries five (Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs) and (General-Purpose Machine Guns (GPMGs) and the platoon or infantry soldiers carry one RPG, it means there is a superior fire power. The Avtomat Kalashnikova (AK47), which is the choice of weapon being used by the current military, is outdated. It has a 50-year technology and the bullet being used, the 769 millimeter bullet, is outdated. These are clones from Africa, from China and other areas of the world. That particular AK47, the original inventor, Russia, has stopped using it more than 50 years ago. Therefore, the Nigerian military should be able to upgrade to a superior firepower with armor piercing bullets.
Secondly, if the Boko Haram use Hilux in the theatre of operation, the Nigerian army doesn’t have to use Hilux. Hilux are not build for maneuverability in theatres of operation, in landscapes like Yobe and Borno. We should look for superior vehicles and give to the military. But somewhere, government is alleged to be withholding money that is meant for this, which means the administration is paying lip service to the fight, destruction and stoppage of this insurgency once and for all. It is imperative that we fund the military adequately to be able to sustain the onslaught in order to remove political Boko Haram, remove criminal Boko Haram and isolate the ideological Boko Haram for the final elimination at our borders.
In your own calculation, is the government winning the war against Boko Haram?
It is difficult to calculate who is winning. But let me just say succinctly that the casualty being sustained by friendly forces, in this case, our military, is becoming very alarming and distasteful for me to accept as act of war. The Boko Haram have also found various ways to create serious panic within the system by attacking schools, attacking innocent civilians, attacking ceremonies. The fact that they are able to do that unseen by the military, tells me that the intelligence community needs to upgrade their tactics in terms of procurement of intelligence, both human intelligence and artificial intelligence and at this particular point in time, our military needs to have an airborne unit, a helicopter unit that will be able to rapidly deploy to the theatre of operation within seconds and be able to sustain result.
This is not a symmetrical war where you use fighter jets from the Air Force to attack known locations of Boko Haram. No. You need lighter aircraft like helicopter gunships, which move swiftly and have rapid deployment of armament that can yield against these insurgents successfully. You need aerial reconnaissance, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) that have infrared capabilities that can hover above 10,000 feet to be able to reconnoiter all the theatres of operation and know when Boko Haram is crossing our border and where they are going to carry out operations and be able to distinctively know who is wearing a true Nigerian army uniform and who is an impostor.
It amazes me that even as of today, the military have changed the colour of their camouflage three times and each time they change it, Boko Haram like chameleon, assimilates, which means there are moles within the military that tell Boko Haram the type of camouflage that will be used. It really disturbs me that recently, Boko Haram were able to procure armoured vehicle to attack military positions before such armoured vehicles were destroyed. Where did they get these armoured vehicles? How did they enter Nigeria? That means there are people within the system that are funding and financing Boko Haram and giving us problems.
What could be the aim of these people?
That again remains for analysts to decipher what is their aim. Some people have said, according to Shekau, that their aim is the Islamization of Nigeria, which I very much doubt because majority of the people that have been killed are Muslims. Others have said destabilization of Nigeria. But the mere fact that Boko Haram has an international link with al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda and also with the Mali insurgency, it makes it very uncertain if you are going to have elections in Borno and Yobe in 2015. It also makes it uncertain if you are going to hold census in 2016 in those areas, and since those are Nigerian territories, the children in those areas remain Nigerians. They are potential Senators, potential medical doctors and potential Nigerian army candidates. Therefore, we must liberate those two states, including Adamawa because they are Nigerian territories.
As a security expert, is the leader of the Boko Haram sect, Shekau, alive or dead?
I am glad you said security expert and not an overseer. While I was in the United States of America, it was alleged that he had been shot and wounded in one of the theatres of operation and I tried to confirm that and nobody saw his body. But informants within their ranks confirmed to the military that he had been shot dead.
Personally, if I were to advise the military, I would have created a unit that would go on a hunt for his body, excavate the body and bring him out. If he is buried in Cameroon, then it is easier. But you could not do these things because there is an absence of two things – aerial reconnaissance. Early in this war, we should have been able to bring in drones. I don’t know arrangements that are being made to procure same. I hope the Chief of Army Staff is doing that now.
Secondly, we have not won or made any attempt at media narrative. But Boko Haram have won that war. They have effectively used the media, both print and broadcast. They have effectively used the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) Hausa Service, Voice of America (VOA) Hausa Service to articulate their position. But we are yet to articulate narratively through the media and be able to change the hearts and minds of their recruits and their followers and be able to say to them, Boko Haram is un-Islamic, Boko Haram is un-Nigerian and Boko Haram is not in your interest. But nobody is doing that and I want to believe that people in the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA), are putting something together to that effect. But why must it be a fire brigade approach, instead of sitting down, getting the required expertise to move forward in this issue of narrative?
Shekau recently released video messages. Are they real?
Well, if the Nigerian army has a psychological department that is vibrant, then the psycho analyst will sit down and be able to study the body language of that video and compare it to previous videos of Shekau and bring in statisticians to be able to look at the physical similarities and ascertain if this man is alive or dead, if there is an impostor in this particular case or if there is a look-alike. Since they have failed to do that, it is difficult to believe that he is dead and also very difficult to ascertain that he is alive.
Do you think the military was right to have claimed that he may have died when they didn’t have the fact?
Well, the military did not say it verbatim that he is dead. They also alleged that they were told that he was dead. They had to give that information based on what they had because it can also be very tactical. That information could also be a base for the resurgence of civilian joint task force who now feel that Shekau is dead. We are now going to be good people and follow the system. It also has another end to it and for Boko Haram to be struggling to say that Shekau is alive, is also affecting their psyche because if he is alive, why continue to say he is alive. Let him continue to say that which he usually does. You don’t need to say he is alive. So, it’s a two-edged sword and the military did its duty in my own view in saying the man is dead.
Is it true that some of the attacks we hear of are being carried out by the military, rather than Boko Haram? Again, that the military wants the situation to continue so that they can continue to exploit the system?
That’s a very unfortunate analysis. The Nigerian military that I know and have studied their body language in terms of the civil war, are a very disciplined military. They fought a civil war and brought peace to this country. I doubt that the Nigerian military will do that. But what has been observed is that the Boko Haram themselves, have been impersonating the officers, wearing uniforms of various shades and colours and have been attacking communities as a basis to cast aspersions on the military. I don’t think the Nigerian modern day army will do that. Do you know that the minimum education of military amongst Colonels is at least a Master’s Degree? So, how could they carry out such? It’s not possible. They themselves would like a closure to this war so that they can go about doing that which they know how to do best and that is being the Nigerian army.
How would you describe the present civil-military relationship, most importantly in those three states?
I think there is need for greater improvement not only in those three states, but in the country as a whole. But let me just say that the military hospital in Kaduna, 90 percent of the casualties there are civilians and not the military. They are being treated by the military. Let me also say that there are boreholes and housing that the military are doing in the affected areas. But we need to do more. It’s not just only the military. I will like to see a situation where the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), can sit down together and say let us help our brother governors and they will task themselves for the sake of this country; N100 million from each state governor and out of the 33 state governors, for the purpose of going to Yobe and saying to Governor Shettima, you are Nigerian and we feel your pain, use this to rebuild some of the infrastructure that have been destroyed.
Will Boko Haram not destroy them again?
Boko Haram stands the opportunity to destroy them again. For instance, without digression, that people were killed in Boston Marathon last year doesn’t mean that Boston Marathon will not hold this year. There is a resilience called people’s resilience. When you build and somebody destroys and you build again, it is psychologically telling on the person, you cannot defeat us. The people of Nigeria have resolved that we must defeat you and that will go a long way. Those two or three governors at this particular moment are isolated. Everything they are doing is coming from their security votes. I will like other state governors to help them with the displaced persons issues they have, help rebuild the schools and houses.
There are two victims in this thing called Boko Harm: the victim of a mother whose child becomes Boko Haram because she never wanted her child to become an extremist. There is the victim of the family who lost children to the military power or to Boko Haram bombing. Don’t they deserve to be consoled by the general public of Nigeria? I still believe there must be a dramatic improvement in the military/civil relationship. The military needs to step up and show it to the Nigerian public that we have done XYZ in various communities.
The most dangerous aspect of this war is shutting down telecommunication in these states as it is affecting all parties. I would like to see the military in collaboration with the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), open tunnels of communication whereby you put a time log between 6 am and 10 am, people in certain parts of the state can make calls and you monitor these calls effectively because we have the capability to monitor up to 3G. It’s just that the government lacks the political will to do that.
What’s your take on the politicization of the military along religious and ethnic lines?
It’s a very dangerous aspect. For those of us who have a sense of history, I was a child soldier for three years and I didn’t see my parents in that war with a bullet wound or mortar wound in my right ankle because our military were politicized in January of 1966. That led to a brutal civil war that took so many lives, including civilians. Recently, some retired Generals from a particular area in the country accused the current Chief of Army Staff of being very biased in promotions and they were wrong because to promote in the military, there are internal mechanisms that are applied. You take your exams, you pass your exams and your files since your days in the Nigeria Defence Academy (NDA) or since you joined the military, follows you along. If you are a good military officer, your peers know. The promotion comes from peer review mechanism before it goes to the Army Promotion Board and the Army Council Board approves those that will be made General. Why is it that when somebody is made a Major General, he says to God that he is grateful for giving him Generalship but when he is retired, he blames human beings? It means that such people’s faith is questionable.
Recently, the most dangerous was when an Islamic group in Kaduna called a press conference to say that the intake in NDA is biased, that there were few Muslims taken against many Christians from Kaduna. That is very dangerous. People are born Nigerians first before their religion and the federal character did not address the issue of religion. Federal character addressed the issue of geographic zones and if a young man from Kaduna is taken into NDA, what are his qualifications? His school certificate result. The army today says we do not want indolent army officers. We want brilliant army officers. So, under DSS, what they do is they first select those with First Class and 2/1 before they look at 2/2 or Third Class. But, unfortunately, because some areas may not have produced 2/1 or 2/2, they may even take Third Class to the detriment of those who are more brilliant.
But having said that, it is unfortunate and must be condemned with every breadth that a religious body will call a press conference and condemn the Nigerian military; a military that has a roadmap on how it performs its recruitment policies. I don’t think it’s fair and those people should quickly apologize to the Federal Government for trying to bring in the issue of religion into the Nigerian army. I find it very despicable.
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